Climate change has affected weather patterns in Manitoba, causing uncertainty about how industries plan. Artificial Intelligence could be the solution to solving these puzzles. Winnipeg-based Weather Logics sees the potential in employing AI to improve forecasting precision.
“What AI is able to do is figure out how the weather is going to change in the future without actually knowing what these equations are,” says Scott Kehler, President and Chief Scientist at Weatherlogics. “You just give it all the data, and it figures out on its own how it’s going to change in the future. And so this is allowing us to discover new things.”
Although AI has been shown to be more accurate in some areas compared to traditional weather models, current short-term forecasting methods are still a better option.
At the core of weather prediction is something called numerical weather prediction models. All available physics knowledge and equations for temperature, humidity, and air pressure are fed into supercomputers. A snapshot of the current weather is taken and entered into the computer, where the supercomputer uses those physics equations to simulate how the weather is expected to evolve over the coming hours, days, or even weeks. For decades, this approach has served as the backbone of weather forecasting. With how rapidly AI technology evolves, Kehler wouldn’t be surprised if that changes.
AI and new weather-predictive technology will become increasingly crucial in numerous industries, including agriculture, insurance, and transportation. An interesting aspect Kehler has noticed in the data on changing weather in Manitoba is that the precipitation the province receives each year hasn’t significantly changed. However, this has translated into more extreme weather events, such as severe rainstorms and droughts.
“Farmers are having trouble, more so just dealing with all these extremes. That’s a trend that we’re seeing a lot in Manitoba where, just in recent years, we’ve gone from the wettest year on record to the driest year almost back to back.”
For both agriculture and insurance, that is a significant issue. The increasing amount of uncertainty year to year makes planning difficult for industries. If the agriculture sector isn’t certain what type of crops to plant based on conditions, it could lead to greater crop failure. Insurance companies need to understand the risk of severe weather events, and if the risk of those events keeps changing over time, it makes it very hard for them to plan and know their pricing. Changing weather risks increase costs for agriculture and insurance, potentially leading to higher premiums or inaccessible insurance for some. This will add to the financial pinch that many Winnipeggers are feeling.
As for this winter, Kehler is unsure how the La Niña will affect things but says the -40 temperatures that Winnipeggers often speak about could become a thing of the past, with Winnipeg only hitting -40 once in about the last 15 years. Whether or not these weather events become a trend is something Kehler is watching closely.
– Ryan Funk, U Multicultural
